The Election Commission of Thailand has indicated that constituency by-elections for banned MPs will go ahead on 11 January 2009 (the same day as the election for the Bangkok Governor). There will be 29 parliamentary seats to fill, in 26 constituencies in 22 different provinces. Of course there is no guarantee that these by-elections will go ahead. The anti-government forces will be courting further judicial intervention, or a military coup, to overturn the electoral process. But if the by-elections do proceed they will be an interesting test of popular will in a highly polarised political climate.
How will the defenders of democracy in the PAD behave in the by-election campaigns? Will they mobilise their formidable rhetorical and logistical machine to mount local campaigns in support of opposition candidates? Will plastic hand-clappers and iron bars become popular features of local political rallies? Will PAD cadres be walking the streets in the towns and villages of the 26 constituencies to provide some of their much-vaunted political education? Will yellow be the colour of local opposition campaigns? Will banners, leaflets and posters proclaiming the PAD’s “new politics” festoon light poles and shop awnings in the 22 lucky provinces?
I suspect not.
Opposition candidates are likely to keep as much distance between themselves and the PAD as possible. The last thing they want is for the by-elections to become a mini-referendum on the PAD’s recent provocations. The PAD is electoral poison and, as the economic and social impacts of PAD’s airport thuggery start to hit home, the potency of the poison will increase. There are numerous colourful and eccentric characters in Thai politics, but probably not many mad enough to campaign alongside the post-Suvanabhumi PAD.
And, of course, the PAD has never shown any interest in electoral processes. They hold the electorate in contempt. Their fundamental mission is to sabotage electoral politics not to contest it.
12 responses so far ↓
1 David Brown // Dec 4, 2008 at 10:03 pm
The old, traditional families should recognise the realities and
instead of wasting their time and wealth, and the wealth of Thailand, in
fighting against the future
they should direct their energies and capabilities to learning to live in the new democratic Thailand.
2 Another David // Dec 5, 2008 at 12:12 am
David Brown, you are living in a fantasy world if you think democracy will mature in Thailand - until both sides accept what you say.
You put down one side and I can assure you, the other side will just pop up with the same, or at least very similar ways of wanting to keep the “masses” down…..albeit they might throw in a couple of enticing trinkets, such as the Baht30 Health Scheme and the equally popular village funds. Then they will just go on their merry way doing what Thai politicians do best………and that is not looking after their constituents. Get real my friend.
3 Marty // Dec 5, 2008 at 4:41 am
As a large number of the by-elections are in the north and northeast Red strongholds it would be poor tactics for PAD to try and attack or disrupt those elections. It’s a long way to Songkal for backup forces if they were to mobilize in the North and Northeast red strongholds. Having said that the PAD leaders are obviously non democratic and willing to sacrifice a few of their pawns in the battle to turn Thailand back into a feudal state.
It would be beneficial for the Pro government sides to use the PAD in their campaign pointing out the direct link between the Democrats and the PAD at every opportunity. Likewise it would also be a good tactic for the coalition parties to get together and only run a single candidate based on the party that had the seat removed by the court, this would stop the vote splitting and probably end in larger winning majorities. If the coalition parties can get a much larger percentage of the vote in all the constituencies than the last time it would be looked at as a blow to the anti-democratic movement and a show of support for the government.
4 stephan // Dec 6, 2008 at 6:37 pm
we need to keep in mind that PAD never has been and never wanted to be a political party, running for any office. the PADs program, if there is any, is to monitor justice, election fraud, corruption & cronism. no less, but not much more.
laws should be made by democratically elected decent lawmakers in the best interest of the majority of people and not by a bunch of greedy thugs in their own interest only.
example is tax-sins dubious sale of shin in 2006, made possible by ‘laws & rules’ implemented not for the thai people but for him alone, costing thailand billions in lost taxes, now in tax-sins deep pockets.
quote: “Criticisms of the sale focused on the allegations by Thaksin and a compliant government that the transaction was exempt from capital gains tax (as per Revenue Department and Stock Exchange of Thailand regulations - later determined by Thai courts not to be legal), the fact that the Thai company was sold to a Singaporean company, and the fact that the Thai law regarding foreign investments in the telecom sector had been amended just prior to the sale”. unquote
5 David Brown // Dec 6, 2008 at 9:00 pm
Another David
who is the “other side” that you talk about?
I am suggesting that the ruling families should support all Thais in deciding who will be the government
the ruling families want to disenfranchise as many of the rest of the voters as they can get away with
what other side are you talking about?
6 David Brown // Dec 6, 2008 at 9:11 pm
stephan,
so the PAD is something like an ombudsman and human rights commission type organisation… good, sounds quite honourable
it does explain whaat the PAD seem to have no particular positive things to suggest for thai society… oh, except that they have declared that they believe most Thai people should not be able to vote for their government (ignorant buffaloes… guess human rights dont apply to them?)
anyway, my question… do you think the PAD should be concerned at the actions of the CNS that broke all the laws of Thailand, in fact replaced them all with a new constitution that is designed to disenfranchaise voters and apply unproductve punishments to poltical parties to linit their power to represent the people that elected them?
Thaksin’s crimes, if they are true had very little effect on anyone other than himself (and all the other people that sold shares and were happy not to pay tax) whereas the changes by the CNS have destroyed the processes of government affecting all of Thailand
I wish people would keep a sense of perspective… just because a corrupt rich businessman that uses bankruptcy to protect his assets and runs protests to expand his business empire tells you to attack Thaksin… why do you believe him and why dont you look at the broader picture to see where it all fits?
7 HC lau // Dec 6, 2008 at 10:12 pm
Stephan has typical PAD logic engaged. Capital gains tax does not apply to equity sale - period. Is Stephan holder of any shares in the Thai market? If not then I am sure many of the PAD backers are. Can Stephan please, please, please list one (1) of them who has paid tax on their shares sale.
Everyone who has done shares transactions on the Thai stock exchange should be in jail now for tax evasion - that would put all the PAD members including Stephan behind bars. (of course discounting all the old ladies (200 bt /day and goons (500bt /day)
Incidently that(protest) money is actually taxable since it is earned income
8 stephan // Dec 7, 2008 at 1:47 am
@hc lau:
quote: “There is no separate capital gains tax in Thailand. Capital gains are subject to tax in the same manner as other income.” unquote
period. could you PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE list how much tax tax-sin has paid on his sale of shin corp. or do you have typical toxin logic engaged? would you like to buy shin shares at a nominal value of 10 or even 1 baht per share tax free? we all wonder why you so vehemently defend tax-sinners…..do you have a stake ???
9 Kevin // Dec 7, 2008 at 11:32 am
I don’t understand the pro-Thaksin bias of this website. When exactly did the white boys start caring about who got elected in Thailand? If they’re going to foam at the mouth about yellow-team lady terrorists at the airports, I’d like to hear some foaming about red-team death squad terrorists. It’s not that I love either side — it’s that it ill behooves farang academics to address the latest turn in Thai politics in such a brazenly unevenhanded way.
Aside from the occasional good-guy bad-guy talk on the part of the principals, it’s a great site which I check frequently. Thanks!
10 sweenwalker // Dec 7, 2008 at 2:39 pm
Thailand
There is no separate capital gains tax in Thailand. All earned income from capital gains is taxed the same as regular income.[2] However, if individual earns capital gain from security in the Stock Exchange of Thailand, it is exempted from personal income tax.
11 amberwaves // Dec 7, 2008 at 5:48 pm
Kevin, if you’d like to hear “some foaming about red-team death squad terrorists,” I believe you are welcome to foam right here. Why should you expect others to do your foaming?
Equating, as you seem to do, criticism of the PAD with “pro-Thaksin bias” is pure oversimplification. Would you say Ji Ungpakorn, perhaps the most outspoken critic of the PAD, is a Thaksin fan?
I’m guessing that you have not been reading New Mandala for very long. Just making a quick look back to jog my memory, I’d say that there have been a very limited number of purely “pro” and “anti” Thaksin items on this blog.
Links to “anti” items, such as articles by Chang Noi and Michael Connors, for example, appear to - I did not do a count - outnumber “pro” items, by contributors such as Republican, and references to positive evaluations of some of his rural pump-priming programs.
If it’s the comments that you feel show a bias, I’d say that’s like being unhappy about election results. You’re not accusing Andrew and Nicholas of comment fraud, are you? (That’s supposed to be a joke.)
12 HC lau // Dec 8, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Stephan, please not sweenwalker comment.
Also, you may want to check with your stock broker or sign up with one - I am assuming that you do not invest in the Thai stock market, otherwise you will have known about the non-tax.
BTW while you are at it, please check your exalted leader Sondhi tax record.
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