The Army’s analysis of the current situation goes like this. There is a “war for the people” in process, meaning a contest for popular support. On one side is the Army. On the other are politicians, and especially former communist activists who lurk in the background of party politics.A generation ago, the Army won the cold war in Thailand by dragging the communist rebels back from the jungle to a normal life in the city. But, this analysis contends, the activists have never changed their way of thinking or forsaken their ambitions. They aim to use popular support to grab state power, and then to use state power to implement their own agenda, which includes the overthrow of the monarchy. Although they now seek popular support through the ballot box, this is not significantly different from the old guerrilla strategy of mobilising the villages.Their tools now are the populist policies offered to the electorate. These policies are designed solely to win popular support and gain election to political office. They do not truly solve the problems of the people. Unless something is done to halt this trend, the Army analysis concludes, Thailand will find itself in the same situation as Nepal where Maoists have built massive popular support and are trying to replace the monarchy.
- Extracted from another excellent opinion piece by Chang Noi: “A new cold war underway in Thailand”, The Nation, 26 November 2007.
20 responses so far ↓
1 Ex-Ajarn // Nov 28, 2007 at 6:22 pm
“Their tools now are the populist policies offered to the electorate. These policies are designed solely to win popular support and gain election to political office.”
How is this different than in the US, Cananda, Australia, New Zealand, Germany, Japan, or any other “democracy” in the world?
This excerpt is totally off the mark, Thai generals think about their own personal power and wealth, (and if today’s Bangkok Post can be believed, The Thai dictators are doing a good job of enriching themselves). A resurgent of communists may be used for justification for power grabs, but it seems impossible to think the dictators take their own rhetoric seriously.
2 jonfernquest // Nov 28, 2007 at 10:24 pm
If Thaksin and the TRT are like communism than the whole thing should be separate from the person of Thaksin and his wealth but it isn’t.
Yesterday’s op-ed piece in The Bangkok Post by Boonrak Boonyaketmala argued that Somkid was in many ways an independent entity from Thaksin and that he was pushed out of the way so that Thaksin could solidify personal control and that the PDA’s blocking him from joining the interim government early on was a big mistake. A lot of former TRT people have branched off on their own too. Their are old loyalists who still faithful and fighting for the return of Thaksin. That specifically is what the army seems to be scared about and there’s an easy solution that isn’t a cold war, it’s divide and conquer to eliminate one person’s power.
Hopefully, the Democrats will strike a nice coalition and the prove that ***Thaksin like policies (but improved) are possible without Thaksin***. This personality cult stuff is starting to eat Thailand alive like it ate Burma with Aung San Suu Kyi. Thaksin seems more like he’s becoming an Aung San Suu Kyi with big bags of cash. A rebranding from the old “UN is not my father” days.
3 Sidh S. // Nov 29, 2007 at 6:21 pm
Based on Chang Noi’s article, Thailand is heading towards very interesting, volatile times if Samak becomes PM and Chalerm becomes interior minister. In that scenario, soon enough, people will be on the streets again (also due to the antagonistic nature of the Samak/Chalerm team).
Is this a replay of 2006 and a chance to ‘correct’ the conflicts ‘democratically’? If PPP gets a bit less than half of the 480 seats and have to form a coalition with Chart Thai, then there’s not too much to worry. When the situation gets really bad, PMBanharn will make the ‘heroic’ move and form a coalition with the Democrats and smaller parties (after pocketing PMThaksin’s money! Clever!).
I strangely see this as the ‘ideal’ scenario so that we can all see, once and for all, how far PMThaksin will go to get his money back and seek revenge on his political enemies. If PPP can form a single party government and all their MPs are hard-core Thaksinites, we’ll have a very dramatic 2007 to remember. However, if there are weak links and some factions can still be ‘bought’ - back to Thai politics as usual.
PPP better not meddle too much with the army though. As long as they get their budget and inner security act - which Samak, as PM, might find very ‘useful’ - they would probably stay in the background. But knowing PMThaksin, he will be very tempted to replace GenAnupong with a loyal classmate - and the army will be in the middle of the fray again…
4 chang noi // Nov 30, 2007 at 11:26 am
The ‘cold war’ article is a straight summary of a document which Bangkok Pundit mentioned (thanks for the link, BP) and promised to summarize, but then abandoned the idea. It has a policy paper dated 16 September, apparently signed as “approved” by General Sonthi; and transcripts of two speeches given on 21 September 2007 in the Kittikachorn Auditorium of the army command at a meeting to relay the policy to battalion heads. The second speech is probably by General Sonthi; he is referred to as simply ‘Chairman’, but addresses the assembled crowd as nong nong, so it must be the top dog. The other speech is by a deputy (รอง ผบ. พลใ๑ รอ.).
Maybe the generals don’t believe their own rhetoric. But they seem intent on acting on it.
The document is still available as a pdf. The two links from there back to the hi-thaksin site now seem to be broken, but hi-thaksin’s first-page banner directs you to the document .
We omitted one part of the argument because inclusion would probably have meant that The Nation would not print the piece. Here are two key extracts, both from the deputy’s speech.
“Whether in the pre-war era, the cold war era, or the era of capitalist democracy, the trend of conflict, and the procedures to deal with the ‘war over the people,’ have not changed at all. We remember well that twenty years ago, we faced the cold war. We know that our predecessors began with a military approach, but ended with a strategy of mass politics. But throughout that period of struggle, there was one person who fought body and soul throughout his life, with methods that were ingenious throughout; that is, His Majesty the King. He understood the war over the people thoroughly. Throughout the period of struggle, he went to meet the people, he competed for the grassroots, he carried out over 4,000 royal projects….. but now, I must tell you, we do not see His Majesty covered in sweat, or see him walking to meet the people any more, because of his physical condition and because of time; but that is something we must understand, and we must carry out our duty in His Majesty’s footsteps at all times.”
“In truth His Majesty gave us the sufficiency economy since 1974, but what surfaced in the last 4-5 years was a message to the people to cure the problem of populist policies; that is the cleverness and ability of His Majesty the King.”
5 bangkokpundit // Nov 30, 2007 at 5:03 pm
Chang Noi:
The ‘cold war’ article is a straight summary of a document which Bangkok Pundit mentioned (thanks for the link, BP) and promised to summarize, but then abandoned the idea.
Upon sober reflection, the thought of properly summarising it meant trawling through all 12 pages. After the cold war analogies on the first page or so, my sanity got the better of me.
Those quotes about HM the King would have been worth it though.
6 Thailand imperilled by masculinity, not pregnancy « Rule of Lords // Nov 30, 2007 at 8:23 pm
[...] Chang Noi, The new Cold War, 26 November 2007 (and further comments & links) [...]
7 jonfernquest // Nov 30, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Given that Chang Noi’s piece is a summary of actual military thinking, maybe the military isn’t as light and nimble on their feet as it seemed.
I sure wish that Chang Noi would start predicting possible future worlds so people can know what to anticipate. Surely, it must be possible to predict a little bit, like a couple of possible worlds.
How the efforts of PPP and the Democrats to form coalition governments might play out? Or what might happen if Samak opens his mouth and starts abusing people after a victory? Or what might happen to all the efforts of the Assets Scrutiny Committee?
8 Sidh S. // Dec 3, 2007 at 1:56 pm
In terms of predictions, I think the downfall of Thai governments fits one pattern whether they are bought down by coup or democratically - alleged corruption. Even PMThaksin who ingeniously found an almost foolproof method of staying in power while being perceived as ‘corrupt’ succumbed in the end. He may come back via the Samak-Chalerm nominees, but just the choice of these two already laid the path towards PPP’s inevitable downfall. PMThaksin has already made the same mistake of wanting absolute control and loyalty. I would say a Chaturon-Sudarat team would have been more sustainable - but PMThaksin probably realizes that they’ll respect the court rulings on corruption cases against him. It’s a safe bet that Samak-Chalerm would not.
9 Teth // Dec 4, 2007 at 12:24 am
Chaturon-Sudarat are banned from politics, for your information.
10 Sidh S. // Dec 4, 2007 at 12:44 pm
Thanks Teth. I forgot. We are witnessing politics of desperation here - less about the country, more about saving their skins/assets…
11 Srithanonchai // Dec 4, 2007 at 3:57 pm
They are not at all “banned from politics.” This is the short hand version used by the Thai press, but it does not make it any more correct. Please, consult the Political Party Act to find out precisely what they are banned from. When this organic law was deliberated by the CDA and the NLA, some factions indeed wanted to expand the prohibitions to include a total “ban from politics.” This was seen as “too harsh,” e.g. by usually hawkish Prasong Sunsiri. The ECT, via its “recommendation,” tried to realize what was rejected during the deliberations through the backdoor. It tried to act like a back-up legislator and court. This is a typical case of trying to replace the rule of law by political interests. One might call this the “Srithanonchai method” which is so widely used in Thai legal circles.
12 Colonel Jeru // Dec 4, 2007 at 10:56 pm
If PPP wins big, does it really matter who the nominee-PM will be? Mr. Frank of Manchester City will be calling all the shots anyway according to his usual form, all the TRT . . . correction I mean PPP . . . members will be merely clapping their fists loudly unless the clutched cash bonuses from Potjaman defeat the decibels.
13 Sidh S. // Dec 5, 2007 at 5:14 pm
If PPP wins big, Samak/Chalerm + the internal security bill may return absolute power to PMThaksin. But I also think Samak/Chalerm with lots of power will also start to reveal their own agendas, independent of Thaksin’s intents - which I think is mainly to get ‘his’ money back and pave a way for his return to power. What timeframe this would happen will depend on how fast the security bill + money can break the Thai courts will to drop all cases. The challenge is to get this done before Samak-Chalerm messes up and offends everyone in society (which is also a great ‘opportunity’ for Thaksin to stage a grand entry, welcomed by a million people, at Suvarnabhumi to ’save’ the country).
In this scenario, the urban middle-classes and the PAD will be back on the streets. This would likely lead to an inevitable violent crackdown mainly carried out by the police - mainly with batons, tear gas and not guns. The courts will be back on side with PMThaksin and the oppositions will be charged/jailed. This will be a long drawn out process taking months until the will of the middle class is broken and Thaksin becomes absolute ruler.
Thaksin rules for another 10 years and here there are two scenarios - the Philipines/Indonesia under Marcos/Suharto or Malaysia/Singapore under Mahathir/Lee Kuan Yew. Thailand may become worse off as the Shinawatras enters the 10 ten Forbes list of richest families - leading to Thaksin’s eventual downfall and a post-Thaksin blossoming of democracy. Or Thailand may achieve the wealth levels comparable to Malaysia/Singapore and the reigns are handed to Paethongthan, Thaksin’s youngest daughter.
The discredited military have probably long resigned to this inevitability in handing the reigns to GenAnupong and not GenSaprang (who, with GenSonthi, is exiled in England and becomes avid ManUnited fans). PMThaksin, a fast learning that he is, will have totally neutralize and co-opt them this time (everyone, no matter how resistance at the first and second instances, has a price)…
14 Sidh S. // Dec 5, 2007 at 5:37 pm
If the Democrats can form a coalition government?
The court cases against PMThaksin will go through due process. The ending should not differ too much from Prachai Leophairatana’s case but significantly in scale (PMThaksin would likely get a few decades jail term, but he won’t be there to serve it ofcourse). The Thai parliament returns to its lively times with Samak-Chalerm in opposition. PPP will try it’s hardest to destabilize the government ofcourse, as the longer it spends in opposition, fundings from PMThaksin will dry up, and MPs will naturally start to leave for more favorable pastures. Abhisit will need both luck and strong support to pull through as it will be the hardest two years of his life - that would be the most time he has to establish himself as a viable leader to reduce the influence of the cult of Thaksin (an uneviable task). However, if he is like PMChuan before him - and is a man of strong (elitist) principles, he may not last too long. He has to learn the dark arts and apply it quick (it is a good sign that he has already visited the astrologers). The ‘alternative’ Thai democracy (to PMThaksin’s model) depends much on him.
15 nganadeeleg // Dec 6, 2007 at 9:12 am
Sidh: Thanks for the amusing (to me) predictions - they would be funny if they were not so sad.
16 Sidh S. // Dec 6, 2007 at 5:25 pm
Thanks Nganadeleg.
“Amusing” yet “so sad”, it does reminds me of Pen-ek’s film “Monrak Transistor”. I’ve only seen it once (even if it is one of my favorite movies), but that’s the feeling I always get just thinking of it. Whatever happens next, the story of Thai democracy is ‘bittersweet’ - as it has always been. We’ll come out the other end ‘damaged’ but ‘wiser’ - and ‘hopeful’ (at least that’s what I hope).
17 Colonel Jeru // Dec 6, 2007 at 6:14 pm
Has any of you ever been to a restaurant with the “Samak Aroy” (’Samak Delicious’) sign? Well I had my lunch in one such restaurant today. The restaurant was at Mahachai (too bad my favorite Khun Toom restaurant was not open which forced me to try my luck, or my bad luck, elsewhere). The food was expensive, the crab was NOT fresh and lousy, and the rice was terrible! Only the fish was passable but fails my standard for Thai cuisine.
This is the first I had tried a “Samak Aroy” recommended restaurant (I did not notice until too late at the Cashier’s counter) and I was sorely disappointed. And scared too! Because Samak could very well be Thailand’s next PM, and judging by his culinary standard, I can predict the Kingdom’s governance too, under him, will be just as disappointing or worse.
18 siangmiang // Dec 7, 2007 at 4:30 am
In case you ever want to see Samak slurping over a bowl of Yen Tow Faa, stop by the famous noodle shop on Aree Phaholyothin Soi 7. He eats there about twice a week. I even ordered his special, too bad I think Yen Tow Faa tastes rotten though.
19 nganadeeleg // Dec 7, 2007 at 6:36 am
Sidh: I like most of Pen-ek’s films, and “Monrak Transistor” is one of my favorites (I have it on VCD).
Amusing, but sad, and it would only have taken a few changes in thought & actions for things to have been much better.
FWIW, my all time favorite Thai movie, to date, is Wisit Sasanatieng’s “Citizen Dog”.
20 Sidh S. // Dec 10, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Yes Nganadeeleg, “Citizen Dog” is a powerful movie, both in imagery and satirical content - but in a too abstract way to be a hit at the box-office (his “The Unseen” is a more direct, ‘traditional’ ghost story which I really enjoyed).
I think the ‘Talok Cafe’ crew are naturally more adept at communicating to the Thai masses. Ok, they produce lots of terrible (but makes heaps of money stuff, especially if it feels ’straight from the stage’) - but once in a while they produce gems (or even ‘moments’ within the film) that conveys sharp, critical observations of societal conditions. I personally think Mum and Jaturon Jokmok are great talents to watch - especially if they ‘get their own way’. However, they might be too specific, too local to effectively communicate with the international audiences. (some movies I like from this crowd so far: Mum’s lead role in “Midnight my love”, his movie “Yam Yasothon”; Jaturon’s movies - “Koy teh Yom”, “Toot soo fat” (the latter a straightforward Chinese triad comedy - but done very well)…
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