For the benefit of the many interested New Mandala readers I have put together a consolidated document with key quotations from some of the world’s leading Burma scholars. There is obviously a range of opinion about the current uprising and, importantly, about its likely outcomes.
- Perhaps the nation most concerned about the ongoing protests, and potentially most influential in resolving them, is China, Myanmar’s most powerful neighbor. China, the host of the 2008 summer Olympic Games, “has to be on its good behavior until the Olympics,” said David Steinberg, a Myanmar expert at Georgetown University. “The old days where you sent tanks across the border are not possible today.”
Source: Laurie Goering, “Myanmar protests unlikely to bring change, analysts say” , Chicago Tribune.
- David Steinberg, a Myanmar expert at Georgetown University in Washington, said the government’s decision to allow the protests to pass Suu Kyi’s house on Saturday is a sign “the military is not prepared, unless things get worse, to directly confront the monks in their uniforms.”
Source: “20,000 March in Myanmar Against Junta”, The Guardian.
- Nearly every Buddhist, including officers and top generals, has a brother or cousin or friend who is a monk. “If the army attacks them they are attacking their families, the village neighbours they have grown up with,” said Josef Silverstein, a retired Rutgers University professor and Burma scholar.
Source: Marcus Gee, “Junta confronts Saffron Revolution”, The Globe and Mail.
- “It has been a deeply moving experience to see the long, disciplined lines of monks in towns and cities across the country, marching through monsoonal downpours, chanting prayers for loving kindness and challenging the regime that many citizens blame for their continued oppression,” said Mary Callahan, a Burma watcher at the University of Washington, in an e-mail.
Source: Marcus Gee, “Junta confronts Saffron Revolution”, The Globe and Mail.
- While the mass protests in Myanmar are of fleeting interest to most Saskatchewan residents, University of Regina journalism professor Patricia Elliott has been monitoring the build-up for weeks.
“It is really heating up now,” said Elliott, whose book The White Umbrella — published in 2000 — chronicles the story of the former Burma through the eyes of Sao Heam Hkam, a high-ranking Shan princess who fled the country and came to Canada in 1969.
“It’s hard to watch for me. Over the last year the situation has been deteriorating and certainly I have been watching developments grow over the last couple of weeks and had the sense that it is not slowing down. It is going to hit a tipping point.”
Elliott, who travelled to Burma while researching her book and has befriended Burmese pro-democracy political activists both here and in Myanmar, said the repercussions of the pro-democracy protests can be very strong.
Source: Anne Kyle, “U of R professor closely watching Myanmar protests”, Leader-Post.
- Kyaw Yin Hlaing, a politics professor at City University of Hong Kong, says that some concessions – including immediate measures to alleviate public hardship in day-to-day living – could reduce the momentum of the demonstrations. “People are asking for changes,” he said. “The easiest way for things to calm down is to do something that will make them feel that there are some changes and more changes will come in the future.”
Source: Amy Kazmin, “Monks’ protests put pressure on junta”, The Financial Times.
- Carl Thayer, a defense expert at Australia’s University of New South Wales, says ASEAN appears unlikely to take further action. “ASEAN has already indicated that they reached a certain level of frustration - they can’t do anything and that’s their non-intervention (policy),” he said.
Source: Ron Corben, “ASEAN Under Pressure to Press Burma Against Violence”, Voice of America News.
- Australian National University visiting fellow Trevor Wilson, a former Australian ambassador in Rangoon, says the current culmination of events could be a turning point for Burma.
“(But) I’m not optimistic that from inside the country or from outside clear steps are being taken that will bring about that change,” he said.
Aside from military and defence bans, he believes sanctions by individual nations have little impact on Burma.
“Unless you’ve got fully authorised UN Security Council sanctions, sanctions are not a very effective way (of bringing about change), if they’re going to be circumvented by other Asian countries,” Mr Wilson said.
Source: Sandra O’Malley, “Australia holds off on Burma sanctions”, News.com.au
There are also very recent opinion pieces by Dr Monique Skidmore (an Associate Dean at the Australian National University) available here and Professor David Steinberg (who has been previously interviewed by New Mandala) available here.
Readers who come across any other interesting academic commentary can bring it to our attention by posting a comment.
9 responses so far ↓
1 bystander // Sep 27, 2007 at 9:11 am
Are we going to sit around doing nothing? Well, the Burmese Junta is not very responsive to international opinion, we all know that. But their patron and protector, China, is. This actually can be an opportunity to apply some leverage on the Chinese government to do something about it, or they will face a boycott of Beijing olympics. I believe this threat of olympic boycott and high profile celebrity endorsement is partly behind the Chinese relenting on Darfur and Sudan.
2 Restorationist // Sep 27, 2007 at 12:59 pm
Did anyone post Gen Sonthi’s comments, apparently from an interview, which was reported on TV last night?:
“Regarding the dispersal of demonstrations, the Burmese government did not use military force. Police was deployed. That was the right approach. It has been used by every country—that the military must step back to let police take charge. But the actual tactics may vary from country to country. However, I think there is no violence in the current situation. Everything is under control. The Burmese government is still in control of the situation. On the reports that Buddhist monks were assaulted [during the dispersal of demonstrations], that cannot be concluded just from looking at the photos. As it happened in Thailand, sometimes people used violence against officials. So officials may have to defend themselves. There has been no political suppression. Burmese authorities should understand that it—getting Buddhist monks involved in the demonstrations—is a tactic used by demonstrators. So Burmese authorities understand that they cannot use violence against Buddhist monks. They must use soft approach. I was informed that Burma uses dialogue to solve the problem, and senior Buddhist monks have helped negotiate to end the problem. I do not think Burma will care [about international pressure], because it does not really depend on anyone. Burma has been taking care of itself all along. It does not accept interference from outside. Moreover, there are many countries that have discretely helped protect Burma—such as China and Korea. That is because Burma has plenty natural resources that many major powers want to have their hand on. We are neighbor [of Burma]. If we get involved, that will undermine our relationship.”
3 Julian // Sep 27, 2007 at 5:35 pm
Rreporter John Aglionby with the Jakarta bureau of the Financial Times has obtained a tourist visa at the Burmese embassy in Kuala Lumpur.
If he gets in, we should be getting some interesting stuff.
4 Awzar Thi // Sep 28, 2007 at 2:41 am
Nicholas — you missed some:
“Although it was the first significant protest in more than a decade [in August]… it is largely over.” — Aung Zaw, in Asia Sentinel, September 3
August 29 wire report — “Josef Silverstein, a Myanmar expert and retired Rutgers University professor, said that under such circumstances the current wave of protests could not last…”
And Robert Taylor said on September 23 that “I don’t see the regime is tottering”.
As Robert Taylor never gets anything right, hopefully that will be the kiss of death for the generals.
So much for the experts.
5 Kyi May Kaung // Oct 19, 2007 at 1:30 am
I am afraid this is already dated, and a bit inclined too much towards junta friendlies.
KMK
6 Nicholas Farrelly // Oct 19, 2007 at 1:42 am
Thanks Kyi May Kaung,
20 days is a long time: you’re right that this is already dated. When I put this list together (in a rush, I might add) those academics who I found providing quote in the media were the individuals I noted above.
I may (as time permits) put together a more up-to-date list of academic comment. I would appreciate any suggestions that readers may have about any commentators I might otherwise miss.
Best wishes to all,
Nich
7 jonfernquest // Oct 19, 2007 at 6:13 pm
“I am afraid this is already dated, and a bit inclined too much towards junta friendlies.”
Actually, this list came out the very day that protests reached a climax.
You missed Michael Charney’s piece at the new Statesman:
http://www.newstatesman.com/200709260003
Furthermore, who are the junta friendlies in this list?
I don’t see any at all.
Mary Callahan? Josef Silverstein?
David Steinberg is a political scientist with an obligation to treat his subject matter with some degree of objectivity, not as an activist.
Part of the problem is that the situation **is** too polarized and there is no one in the middle to credibly mediate this conflict.
Two weeks after the protests, the conservative opinions of ASEAN, for instance George Yeo, Singapore’s foreign minister were expressed clearly.
http://www.digitalnpq.org/articles/global/210/10-08-2007/george_yeo
PTT stated clearly that it wasn’t budging on its natural gas pipeline that accounts for $2 billion and 40% of official exports from Burma.
I talked to Burmese people who clearly expressed an opinion that they wished the conflict would end soon with or without the junta. They didn’t care. They just wanted this 20, 40 year low intensity conflict to end so their families could get on with their lives.
Some may think that Thant Myint U’s book is pro-junta, but this sort of willful blindness just gets in the way of effective activism.
Even though I may be an idealist and wish across the board effective sanctions by all states, this clearly looks like it is not going to happen for reasons of Asia’s own choosing (China, Malaysia, India, Singapore, Thailand) even if the UN demands it.
8 More academic commentary on Burma // Oct 20, 2007 at 2:27 am
[...] post updates my previous effort to bring together some of the statements that have been made by academics on the uprising in [...]
9 Lorena Bennett » Blog Archive » Burma’s Saffron Revolution: Violent crackdown on day 10 // Jan 11, 2008 at 4:12 am
[...] both are said to have commercial ties to the Myanmar regime. U.S.-based Chronicle of Higher Ed links to New Mandala academic group blog which has lots of info and in turn links to Burmese sife Kachin [...]
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