The anniversary of Thailand’s sufficiency democracy coup is an appropriate day to launch the latest New Mandala initiative. Following the passage of the new constitution in the referendum of August 19 the regime has announced (though with some equivocation) that an election will be held on December 23. The conduct of this election will be a topic of considerable national and international interest. With martial law still in place in many parts of the country, some are questioning the possibility of a free and open electoral campaign. And, of course, the usual claims about money politics and vote buying are being served up yet again.
So, we invite New Mandala readers to submit their observations on electoral politics leading up to the national election. We are particularly interested in first hand (or informed second hand) accounts of local electoral campaigns throughout Thailand. We certainly don’t want to lose sight of the national picture but we are very keen to get some accounts of local electoral life that go beyond the usual stereotypes. We want to hear about the good and the bad of electoral politics in Thailand. Submissions in Thai are very welcome!
You can make your contributions in a number of ways. You can make comments to this or later “Election Watch” posts. If you would like to make a more substantial contribution you can contact either of us (see our contact details under NM Bloggers above) to discuss making a guest post (or a series of guest posts). Or if you prefer just to email us information we will do our best to incorporate it into a post.
We are confident that the New Mandala reader network can provide informed and diverse perspectives on the conduct of Thailand’s coming election.
29 responses so far ↓
1 Michael H. Nelson // Sep 19, 2007 at 6:31 pm
This past Monday, I attended the meeting of the provincial election commission, after an absence of three weeks after the referendum. The PEC is not yet busy with the national elections. Rather, they have been preparing 27 elections of Tambon Administrative Organizations that will take place on September 30.
However, the national election did make it briefly into the meeting, though by way of an anecdotal reference to the provincial chief of the Democrat party. Khun Chalee had asked the chairperson of the PEC where he was supposed to do his campaign activities. Apparently, he was half-jokingly told, “In the entire province.”
This anecdote points to one immediate task that the ECT/PECs will have to perform urgently, namely the re-drawing of the electoral constituencies in all provinces. This follows from the new constitution that changed the single-member constituency system to a multi-member constituency system. However, the PECs/ECT might have to wait for the passing of the election law (currently in the National Legislarive Assembly, together with the party and the ECT Laws), since this provides the legal basis for demarcating the constituencies.
2 Grasshopper // Sep 19, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Just regarding Thaksin’s opinion piece in the WSJ - reproduced by the nation >
http://nationmultimedia.com/2007/09/19/headlines/headlines_30049529.php
Although I think the last paragraph is rather hypocritical, I don’t disagree with his analysis. I am a semi autonomous liberal though, so of course I would agree. Col Jeruchai - please tell me liberalism is the work of the devil and that I should become a carpenter like my forefathers.
I think its amusing that Thaksin also refers to a world community that has functioning democracies that won’t tolerate undemocratic behaviour. Yes, we are the benchmark! hah! (Just look at what has happened to the West with baby boomers who have no value for the language they use or goals beyond their elected time periods!)
At least what is going on in Thailand is obvious compared to KEVIN 07!!! *shakes the pom poms*
3 Srithanonchai // Sep 19, 2007 at 9:17 pm
Who does the elite favor to form the core of the post-election coalition government? Maybe, here is part of the answer (ceilings for donations do not yet apply):
Democrats get 601 million cash injection
(BangkokPost.com) – The Charoen Phokapand group has donated millions of baht to the Democrat party, according to the Election Commission website. The latest contribution means the Democrat party has so far received a total of 601 million baht in donations in the first ten months of this year. According to sources, the highest financial contribution to the Democrat party was made by subsidiary companies of the Charoen Phokapand group and the Chearavanont family which totaled 35 million baht. The contributions, combined with the 427 million baht raised during the party’s election campaigns, have resulted in a total of 601 million baht in funds. Chart Thai party did not fare well with regards to receiving donations. Only 300,000 baht was donated to the party led by former prime minister Banharn Silpa-Archa.
4 observer // Sep 19, 2007 at 9:17 pm
Grasshopper,
Yes, the last paragragh is hypocritical. Coming from one of the partisans, no one will listen to it.
However, it is a tragedy that the words haven’t come out from a more neutral messenger, or thousands of them. They are the future for Thailand.
5 col. jeru // Sep 19, 2007 at 9:56 pm
Observers the “neutrals’ are the real enemies. Those who can’t make up their minds make possible the rise of an evil like Thaksin.
6 James Haughton // Sep 20, 2007 at 11:25 am
by the way, the original Wall Street Journal site with the article is here: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119015623106831667.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
in case The Nation takes it down.
7 nganadeeleg // Sep 20, 2007 at 7:16 pm
Does anyone really believe Thaksin wrote that article, and if by some miracle he did, do you think he really believes what he wrote?
8 Michael H. Nelson // Sep 20, 2007 at 7:40 pm
In Matichon of September 21, the People’s Power Party published a double-page advertisement announcing their election candidates for a large number of provinces. As for Chachoengsao’s four seats, we see the familiar faces of Thitima and Wutipong Chaisaeng, and Somchai Atsawachaisophon (all former TRT MPs). The fourth candidate is Phichet Tancharoen, who is the elder brother of former deputy speaker of the House TRT-MP Suchart Tancharoen, who was amongst the TRT board members disqualified by the Constitution Tribunal. Phichet and his three colleagues have good chances of representing Chachoengsao in the post-coup parliament.
9 Michael H. Nelson // Sep 25, 2007 at 6:50 pm
Yet another meeting of Chachoengsao’s provincial election commission, and again nothing much yet on the national election in December. Rather, the PEC was concerned with determining the constituencies in a Tambon Administrative Organization that had been up-graded to a tambon municipality; a complaint regarding a local election that unusually many people had moved in a number of houses in the area; distributing supervisory duties amongst the members of the PEC in the TAO elections this coming Sunday; the confirmation of a previous set of local election commissioners in a local by-election; the approval of time-periods to be used for sending the ballot boxes to the counting stations in a municipality; and the approval of the date of another by-election.
Such are the bread-and-butter issues dealt with in PECs all over Thailand.
At the end of the hour-long meeting, however, the national election was briefly touched. An inspector from the ECT will visit the PEC for an hour to inquire about the preparations re the TAO elections. But he might also ask about the redrawing of the MP election constituencies. Thus, the chairman asked the secretary of the meeting what had been done so far in this respect. Well, the director of the PEC’s office had used the pre-2001 constituencies as a template for drawing up provisional maps dividing the province into two constituencies. However, they had to wait for the organic laws to be passed by the National Legislative Assembly at the end of September, and for the criteria subsequently to be set by the ECT. Generally, things such as the geographical settings and the number of voters will have to be considered. Also, they will have to take into account that MP candidates would not suffer disadvantages.
10 Republican // Sep 26, 2007 at 1:43 am
Further to Srithanonchai’s post (#3) on how “elites” are siding in the current war of position between network monarchy and Thai Rak Thai (put very crudely - it’s obviously more complicated than this): I noticed the other night Thanin Chearavanont giving a speech to a military audience (I only caught a short part of it) on Sufficiency Economy.
An interesting study to do - I’m not sure if anyone has already done it - would be to identify the business groups that are firmly allied to network monarchy, and those groups that are allied with, or have the potential to ally themselves with, Thaksin and Thai Rak Thai. This is would presumably be an important factor in the outcome of the coming political battle.
11 Srithanonchai // Sep 26, 2007 at 2:07 am
Republican, is Prachai Leopairatana a complicating factor? To which camp does he belong? He hates Supachai and the Democrats, but is also a violent antagonist of Thaksin and the “Thaksin system.” Finally, he also thinks that the election date was set by PM Surayudh after Thaksin ordered him to do so; he accuses Surayudh of being part of the “Thaksin system.” Readings Prachai’s interviews in Post Today and Matichon makes me shiver. After Thaksin and Sonthi L., Thailand might fall into the hands of yet another megalomaniac Sino-Thai businessman.
12 Republican // Sep 26, 2007 at 2:29 am
Just saw a report on Prachatai about what appears to be a very large rally by Phalang Prachachon in Buriram today[http://www.prachatai.com/webboard/topic.php?id=469267]. The poster reckoned 200 000. From the pics I don’t think it was that many but it does appear quite a large crowd.
13 Republican // Sep 26, 2007 at 8:46 am
Re. Prachai, I just don’t know. As I say, I would be interested in what the political economists have to say.
I don’t think we should be using this concept, “rabob Thaksin” / “Thaksin system”, which was, after all, merely a rhetorical weapon used by Thaksin’s enemies to destroy his legitimacy; ie. the legitimacy of a democratically elected government.
I don’t think the term “Sino-Thai” has very much saliance as an analytical concept today, at least in comparison to 30-40 years ago.
I don’t see much in common with Sondhi, Prachai and Thaksin, apart from the fact that they were all (at one time) successful in business and have some Chinese ancestry.
I certainly don’t believe that Thailand “fell into the hands” of Thaksin; this is the rhetoric of the royalists or the song mai aos.
And in my opinion there is only ONE “megalomaniac” in Thailand today.
14 Michael H. Nelson // Oct 4, 2007 at 10:11 pm
Thailand’s political scene cannot compete with what has been happening in Burma. Rather, it sems that the country is moving on its military-determined path back to “democracy.” The three organic laws necessary for holding an election–Election Commission Act, Election Act, and Political Parties Act–have been passed by the National Legislative Assembly. In a few days, the king will sign them, followed by their publication in the Royal Gazette. 90 days afterwards, a general election must be held. The Royal Decree confirming the election date of December 23 is also expected in a few days.
In Chachoengsao, the signs are also clear. Signboards and banners have been put up in many places by the People’s Power Power. The PEC’s Monday meeting was still about the local elections that had been held on September 30. But when I walked on the bridge across the Bang Pakong River, a black station wagon stopped and an election commissi0ner stepped out to tell me that there woul be another meeting on Thursday, that is, today. This meeting had to be fixed urgently as a result of what the ECT had stipulated.
This concerned two issues. First, from October 5-11, people can apply for the positions of constituency director and constituency committee members. This has to be announced and publicized by the PEC. The PEC will have tp send 15 names to the ECT, which will make the final selection.
Second, the re-drawing of the constituencies had to be done (a reduction to two from four). For this purpose, the office of the PEC had prepared a number of documents, including maps and lists of figures. The latter concerned the number of voters in each constituency. This procedure followed the draft of an ECT regulation, meaning that it was very hot. The PEC had to resolve for three modes of possible constituency divisions. From tomorrow, they will have to be made public to enable people to comment on the PEC’s suggestions. In fact, the PEC might also conduct a public hearing. However, since the entire process must be finished within seven days, there will not be sufficient time.
Afterwards, the PEC will have to send their three models, ordered according to the PEC members preferences and supplemented by the public’s comments, if any, to the ECT, which will make the final decision.
15 Historicus // Oct 5, 2007 at 10:10 am
But there does seem to be much going on:
Sondhi as deputy PM. Ministers ousted. And talk of getting rid of Surayud. The newspapers seem to imply that this is a kind of second coup and that the people behind these apparently related moves are looking to delay the election because the “anti-Thaksin” forces don’t look strong enough.
I’d be interested in comments and analysis of what’s happening.
16 Sidh S. // Oct 5, 2007 at 8:06 pm
Historicus, I have read that too (on Nation and Manager) and there is probably some truth to it. PAD and its allies in the military, parliament are clearly unhappy with the turn of events (e.g. GenSaprang missing out on army chief), accusing PMSurayud of being soft on and making deals with PMThaksin. I understand it is leaks to the media from Counter Corruption Commission of ministers with shareholding of more than 5% (although this is, I understand, allowable with the 1 year interim constitution) has led to resignations. MPs are now seeking a censure debate against the PM and his cabinet.They felt that the CNS has gone so far as staging a coup and not playing hardball against Thaksin who they want finished for good. And in Samak, PMThakin’s nominee, PAD know they will have a nightmare (the true meaning of payback) if he wins the election (at least GenSaprang is guaranteed to be able to handle Mr.Samak - but not the pensive GenAnupong)… The Nation seemed to also imply that, if anything, PMSurayud does not want a mutually destructive all out war with PMThaksin’s billions. PAD probably see that he doesn’t have the guts for it - that’s why there’s rumours (Thairath? Can’t remember where I read this) to push Prasong Soonsiri as PM to finish the job!
The maxim that there’s “no true friend or foe in (Thai) politics” seem to not hold true here. PMThaksin has created sworn enemies in the course of his five year career - a very rare achievement.
17 Historicus // Oct 6, 2007 at 4:59 am
Thanks. Begins to look like the “return to democracy” promise may be being manipulated by those who claimed to be promoting democracy by the “good coup.”
I’d be interested in seeing more analysis of the current situation. Col Jeru, where are you when your opinion is needed?
18 nganadeeleg // Oct 6, 2007 at 8:52 am
The maxim that there’s “no true friend or foe in (Thai) politics” seem to not hold true here. PMThaksin has created sworn enemies in the course of his five year career - a very rare achievement.
Here’s another one: - Money can buy a lot of friends.
19 Col. Jeru // Oct 6, 2007 at 12:29 pm
An election is a wonderful thing isn’t it? An election in Thailand had never been about political parties articulating their people empowering or poverty-eradicating platforms. An election in Thailand is all about the chase for power.
The arithmetic had not changed . . . how much to buy “allegiance” from venal potential election winners and who will be the sugar daddy? Many big Thai businessman have been “inspired” to follow Thaksin’s megalomaniac ways and that is probably the only new element to the coming election . . . and tripling and quadrupling wealth the Shinawatra-way now appears to be Thailand’s “I did it my Way” political hit song. And generals who won’t fade away will chummy to politico-businessmen to be Thailand’s new champions of the poor.
Only Saprang and Thaksin must be sulking in the corner feeling left-out from the coming big Thai shindig both have significantly helped to create.
20 Srithanonchai // Oct 6, 2007 at 3:48 pm
With the big integrator Thaksin gone, many ambitious people are now free to play their own games and thus return Thai politics to the kindergarten stage. Look at what wanna-be PM Prachai Leopairat just did. Pracharat had placed many one-page ads in a number of Thai newspapers, showing Sanoh, Somsak’s wife, and Prachai. And before you have finished reading the party’s 38 policy proposals printed in the ad, Prachai resigns from the party “arguing” that his ideology “contradicted” with Sanoh’s policies. And he did not know this before he joined Sanoh’s outfit, accepted the position of head of its executive board, drew up its policies, posed for the picture, and published the ads? Needless to say, Pracharat’s Matchima members will join Prachai in leaving the party, making him their boss. This all might look rather childish to people who are serious about politics. But it makes perfect sense in the context of Thai politics.
21 Michael H. Nelson // Oct 9, 2007 at 12:51 am
The Election Commission of Thailand has informed its provincial branches where they might download the three new election-related laws so that the PEC and its officials might study them. After all, there is very little time left until the royal decree officially setting the election for December 23 will come into effect and thus make the application of these laws urgent.
For those who can read Thai, the three laws can be downloaded at the Government Gazette web site:
Political Party Act
http://www.ratchakitcha.soc.go.th/DATA/PDF/2550/A/064/22.PDF
Election Commision Act
http://www.ratchakitcha.soc.go.th/DATA/PDF/2550/A/064/1.PDF
MP and Senator Election Act
http://www.ratchakitcha.soc.go.th/DATA/PDF/2550/A/064/69.PDF
22 Srithanonchai // Oct 14, 2007 at 3:52 pm
“Voters were weary of the old type of politics plagued by conflict and wanted politicians to seriously care about the people’s problems, he said.”
Who is the “he”, and when was this statement made? By Thaksin Shinawatra before the 2001 or the 2005 elections? No, by Abhisit Vejjajiva, in his attempt to get more than the 2 MPs in the Northeast that the Democrats managed in 2005 (Bangkok Post, Oct. 14, p. 1).
23 Michael H. Nelson // Oct 25, 2007 at 6:52 pm
Welcome to the brave new world of Thai electioneering, or a variant of bureaucratic fundamentalism:
“The media are also banned from organising any discussion or debate in which one representative or many representatives of one party or many parties are invited to speak.
…
Although the EC’s announcements do not impose restrictions on printed media, Mr Apichart said the owners of printed media were also prohibited from organising forums or inviting politicians to speak or debate.
He said the EC would set up forums which all parties could share. Any forums apart from the EC-sponsored forums are forbidden and the press are welcome to cover the stances of politicians at EC forums. ”
Bangkok Post, 25 October 2007
One wonders whether this in any way contradicts Section 45 of the 2007 Constitution, which guarantees press freedom. The mass media are also not allowed to conduct individual interviews with politicians. One is reminded of the time of the first senate election in 2000, when the ECT imposed a blanket press censureship by misinterpreting the constitution. At that time, the press, including The Nation, at first resisted the ECT’s attempt, but then complied with it. Such was the political atmosphere at that time. The only exception was Siam Rath.
24 Michael H. Nelson // Oct 25, 2007 at 8:14 pm
ECT documents:
For those of you who are interested enough and can read Thai, the Election Commission of Thailand has placed a number of laws and regulations on its web site. Amongst them are the organic laws on ECT, political parties, and elections, and the following pieces:
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_8.pdf
(an ECT summary on “New direction in the campaign for the MP election of 2007”)
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_7.pdf
(“ECT regulation concerning campaigning…”)
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_6.pdf
(“ECT announcement concerning principles and performance of the state in support of the MP election”)
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_9.pdf
(“ECT regulation concerning the election of Members of the House of Representatives”; this is the main legal document detailing all major aspects of electoral organization; it has 177 pp.)
25 Srithanonchai // Nov 1, 2007 at 4:11 pm
The Bangkok Post of Nov. 1 has a useful article on some of the issues concerning free and fair elections in Thailand.
ANALYSIS / DEMOCRACY IN THAILAND
Upholding the standards of a free and fair election
The recently exposed ‘information dissemination strategy’ to prevent the People Power party from victory at the polls exposes the Council for National Security’s hypocrisy about claiming to restore democracy
By ADAM COOPER (ANFREL)
The link is http://www.bangkokpost.com/News/01Nov2007_news17.php
26 Michael H. Nelson // Nov 2, 2007 at 2:11 am
A few days ago, the People’s Power Party scared some people by claiming it would win 260 MPs. Today (Nov. 1), Post Today uses almost an entire page to estimate the election result. In short:
PPP: 206 (incl. 28 PL)
DEM: 126 (incl. 24 PL)
CTP: 57 (incl. 12 PL)
Motherland: 39 m(incl. 8 PL)
Ruam Jai: 33 (incl. 7 PL)
Matchima: 13
Pracharat: 6 (incl. 1 PL)
Given the present animosities, this might result in a 5-6party coalition with the Democrats as core party, or a three-party coalition with PPP. Having five parties with Abhisit as PM is frightening. How much time will they need to agree on the distribution of the spoils? How will this weak leader handle the ministerial fiefdoms of the other parties? How could policies be integrated? On the other hand, the dreams of the constitution drafters would come true: a weak government under all sorts of influences from bureaucracy, academia, and mass media.
27 Historicus // Nov 2, 2007 at 2:58 am
These figures are probably the ones that scare Sonthi B. so much! The idea of a big coalition, though, might work in the interests of the military as they can more easily control it.
A question: a couple of weeks ago, in Asia Times Online, Shawn Crispen claimed that Sonthi Lim had been prevented from returning to Thailand (I hope my memory is working on this). He claims that this is part of palace-Thaksin deal to arrange a compromise. Any more information on this?
28 Michael H. Nelson // Nov 2, 2007 at 7:23 pm
The amendments to the ECT regulation/announcement, forced by the public uproar, are to be found here:
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_13.pdf
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_12.pdf
The ECT might not have done such a good job in developing an idea about democratic election campaigns, but they do care for details, such as suggestions as to how the boards, to be provided by state agencies, should be designed so that candidates and parties might affix their posters:
http://www.ect.go.th/thai/mp50/mp50_15.pdf
One hopes that a budget will soon be provided for this to the provincial election commissions.
29 Michael H. Nelson // Nov 4, 2007 at 1:57 am
According to a report in Krungthep Thurakit (Nov. 11), the National Legislative Assembly, on Octo. 31, passed amendments to the Local Administration Act that abolishes the kamnan elections, and keeps both village and sub-district headmen in office until they reach age 60. Kamnan will be selected in a meeting of the chief district officer with the village headmen of the tambon. After every five years, there will be “evaluations” (that will probably translate into “kin”)
The vote was 82:1:1 — which makes one wonder where the remaining members of the 250-seat NLA were on the occasion of this very important decision.
One might recall in this context that Gen Sonthi as de-facto interior minister and chairperson of the government’s anti-vote buying committee has envisaged the kamnan and villaged heads as main actors in preventing vote buying in their respective areas.
So, just in time, the law was changed. This was like telling them: “Hey, we have helped you with what you wanted, now you help us with what we want, all right guys?”
Thus, this legal change becomes yet another tool in the coup plotters attempt to prevent the TRT/PPP from returning to power.
One might also recall that the introduction of periodic elections was achieved under another coup-government, i.e. the NPKC’s Anand Panyarachun. The Ministry of the Interior and many headmen have been unhappy ever since.
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