Seminar Series: Abstract

12.30
June 30 2009
Seminar Room B (Arndt Room)

Research Seminar - Physical science for disaster risk reduction: who needs it?
Dr Phil Cummins

The objective of this presentation is to demonstrate that research contributions from both physical and social sciences are crucial to achieving progress in disaster risk reduction. Because natural disasters are defined by their impact on society, they can be seen more as a result of decisions made by humans - their choice of where and how to live - than the consequences of physical forces of nature. If we all lived outside of flood and landslide-prone areas, in structures completely resistant to earthquake shaking and wind loading, then we need not concern ourselves with these hazards. However, the reality is that very few people can afford such choices, so disaster risk reduction must balance the cost of mitigation against the likelihood of a hazardous event and its potential impact. Nowhere is this more true than in the developing countries of the Asia-Pacific region, where farmers live on rich volcanic and floodplain soils and fishermen near the coast, where rapidly increasing population and urbanisation results in more people living in marginal, hazard-prone areas, and where poverty can severely constrain the ability to choose where and how one lives. The cost, both economic and social, of mitigation options can be high. Evaluating these costs, and understanding why people make the choices they do and how they can best be influenced to make better choices, is clearly an area where social science research plays a key role.

But what about the other side of the risk management equation, evaluating the likelihood and potential impacts of hazardous events? Although social science still plays an important role in assessing societal impact, here physical science plays a key role in estimating the likelihood and physical impact of hazardous events. Using examples mainly from tsunami hazard, I will make the case that the physical sciences, in particular earth sciences and mathematics, can do a remarkable job of estimating likelihood and impact of hazardous events, and that this knowledge has important implications for hazard mitigation. I will argue, however, that this science often fails to connect with applications in the disaster management sphere unless it includes the social science component needed to translate physical into societal impact. This was most starkly evident for the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (IOT), where the disaster management community was largely unaware of science prior to 2004 that highlighted the potential for a massive earthquake and tsunami to occur off Sumatra. Since the IOT, the international disaster management community has placed increased emphasis on the preparedness component of disaster risk reduction, and this has resulted in some excellent examples of science applications to disaster management. However, I will argue that these are the exceptions rather than the rule; much of the physical science that could contribute most to disaster risk reduction is not being done, and will likely remain so without effective links to the social science needed to translate potential physical impacts into the societal impacts understood by policy makers.

This seminar will be introduced by Dr Paul Tregoning who will give a brief overview of ANU's Centre of Natural Hazards, Research School of Earth Sciences.