The Political Economy of Global Security
Professor Heikki Patomaki – University of Helsinki

Still in the early 21st century, most social scientists give scant if any attention to the future. But what is the point of social sciences if they can only say something about that which has already been and cannot be shaped anymore? For instance, the on-going financial crisis is very much part of the gradually unfolding process of the 21st century world history. Scenarios are not predictions. They start with an analysis of the existing structures and processes and their inherent potential, coupled with the assumption that futures remain open until a possibility is actualised. We can assess the probability of various possibilities in a qualitative manner on the basis of historical analogies and future scenarios by employing contextual human judgement. From this perspective, I argue first that the contemporary era has been becoming similar in some important respects to the era of 1870-1914. Both neoliberalism and the emerging new imperialism tend to represent late 19th-century Western Europe and North America as the model for the future, yet, even a partial return to the 19th century ideals and practices is likely to be counterproductive in the 21st century world, and it may also become a recipe for a major catastrophe. Hence, I anticipate the possibility of escalation of the emergent conflicts that will gradually assemble the conditions for a global military catastrophe. I also discuss the possibility of peaceful and democratic reform of global governance without any major global catastrophe. And what are the consequences of financial crises and global warming? Future developments are dependent on the paths chosen now. Any social system is in some ways vague, ambiguous and liable to ruptures and transformations. A consequence is that scenarios often lose part of their basis when the world changes. Moreover, for these and related epistemological reasons, I understand scenario construction as a self-reflective exercise in cultural studies, moral philosophy and creative ability (in the same way that both research and development and the arts are creative). I conclude by discussing the normative and poetic underpinnings of the vision of global Keynesianism, global democracy, global justice and ecological sustainability.