Seminar Series: Abstract

2.00
April 28 2009
Seminar Room B (Arndt Room)

Land-use Changes and Agricultural Growth in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, 1901-2004
Prof Takashi Kurosaki, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University

This paper investigates land-use changes in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, associates the changes with long-term agricultural performance, and shows the importance of crop shifts in enhancing aggregate land productivity, which is a source of growth unnoticed in the existing literature. The use of unusually long-term data that correspond to the current borders of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh for the period 1901-2004 also distinguishes this study from the existing ones. The empirical results show a sharp discontinuity between the pre- and the post- independence periods in all of the three countries: total output growth rates rose from zero or very low figures to significantly positive levels, which were sustained throughout the post-independence period. The improvement in aggregate land productivity explained the most of this output growth. The decomposition results focusing on quantifying the effect of crop shifts show that the crop shifts did contribute to the productivity growth in all three countries, especially during the periods with limited technological breakthroughs. The contribution of the crop shifts was larger in India and Pakistan than in Bangladesh, where rice is too dominant as the staple crop. The decomposition results and changes in crop composition are consistent with farmers' response to comparative advantage under liberalized market conditions.