Moderator – Dr Mike Bourke - sets scene for Australian Rice Argument

Rice and water in Australia: a debate set in a rapidly changing global context

The debate by three eminent scientists about whether growing rice in Australia is a waste of Australian water takes place in the broader global context of water scarcity and climate change. What are the details of the broader picture for Australia?

Firstly there is a severe drought affecting much of south east, particularly the Murray Darling Basin. Each week brings even more dire warnings from expert commentators about how severe the effects of the drought are for irrigated agriculture, the health of the river system and associated ecology. It is particularly alarming that, without rain, meeting urban water supply in the lower part of the Basin is uncertain beyond 2009-2010 - a very short time frame in which to plan mitigation.

The ramifications of drought significantly impact our ability to supply global and local grain markets. Many of us believe that the global economy changed irreversibly in the middle of the decade and we are witnessing a period of particularly rapid change. A number of major physical and economic forces are operating that will require significant adjustments to outlook and policy.

A factor affecting most of us on the planet, is a rapid increase in the price for crude oil. This may, or may not, be associated with peak oil production, but it is real. Many commentators argue that the price will increase much more in the coming years. This has many far reaching implications, most of which are not immediately apparent to consumers.

Another factor is continuing global climate change. Encouraging in the short term, is the widespread recognition by policy makers that rapid climate change is occurring and that it is almost certainly caused by human activity.

Important in this discussion is the high economic growth of a number of countries and associated increases in consumption of certain goods, particularly petroleum products, but also foods including meat, wheat based foods and vegetable oil. The rise in demand is particularly apparent in China, but has occurred in many other countries, including India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Pakistan, Egypt, Thailand, Malaysia Turkey and Bangladesh.

Significant also is the ongoing moderate to high increases in populations around the world, encroachment of cities and industry onto productive agricultural land and ongoing spread of major pests and animals and plants diseases as a result of fast, cheap international travel.

Particular consequences of these forces include: increase in production of food crops for use as bio-fuels, particularly sugarcane, maize, wheat, soy bean and palm oil; rapid increase in price and reduced availability of major fertilisers and crop weedicides; and rapid increase in cost of basic foodstuffs, including rice, wheat-based foods, maize, palm oil, other vegetable oils and soy bean.

The combination of steep and sudden increases in price of basic foods and transport is having a severe and widespread impact on many people, and this in turn, has implications for political and social stability. Consider the situation in Solomon Islands, a small impoverished island nation of half a million people to the northeast of Australia. Severe warnings from The Central Bank of Solomon Islands (Press Release 004/2008) clearly highlight the serious economic situation:

The Central Bank of Solomon Islands has warned that the soaring rate of inflation in the past few months is set to continue, and that inflation will reach unprecedented levels in the months ahead. … In May 2008 annual inflation reached 13.1%, up from 10.0% in December 2007. The driving force behind the high rate of inflation is huge price increases of a few specific goods. … The price of rice, flour and fuel items have leapt up on a month-by-month basis since the beginning of the year. … The Bank forecasts that further increases in the price of rice and fuel will push inflation to historically unprecedented levels within the next few months. The problem is made worse by the importance of fuel in nearly all consumption items, causing knock-on effects in the prices of items such as domestic root crops and vegetables, transport and electricity, and all imports.

This debate about rice, irrigated agriculture and priorities for water is important and timely. Three eminent speakers, all trained as agricultural scientists, will cover many aspects of the debate. Underlying the context of this debate is the broader global situation of rapid change relating to: the planet’s climate and awareness of the significance of that change; rapid economic growth in some of the most populous nations and their associated levels of consumption; scarcity of basic foods and increases in price of these foods; and the significant consequences for the poorest and least powerful people in the world.